Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Election Live Update 12

I'm about ready to go to bed here. Kerry's pulled ahead in some more swing states. Even if he gets all the upper midwest swing states (except Ohio) Bush will still win with 274 to Kerry's 260, and Hawaii still pending but basically irrelevant. That's a worst case scenario---Bush could still pull back ahead in Wisconsin or Iowa.

I'm calling New Hampshire for Kerry---he's up by 8K with 81%. I'm also calling for Kerry Michigan (80K at 43%) and Minnesota (130K at 46%). He's got a slight margin in Nevada and a pretty good margin in Wisconsin but I can't call them.

For Bush, I'm calling Colorado (110K at 70%) and New Mexico (12K at70%). That puts our new status at BUSH 260 ; Kerry 245. If the rest of the swing states don't change and Kerry gets Hawaii, then the final result (and my prediction---although Bush could get more, but I don't see how Kerry could) will be:

BUSH 274 ; Kerry 264

Bush wins the presidency. Goodnight.

Edmond the Hun

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