I love numbers, perhaps too much for my own good. I concluded that an analysis of the numbers alone does not justify accusing Reggie Sanders of taking steroids, even though from 2000 to 2001 he went from 11 home runs to 33 home runs, and even though he hit as many home runs in 2005 as 2004 in only half as many at-bats. If he started steroids in 2001 why didn't he hit as well in 2004 as 2005? Or, if he started steroids in 2005, why the jump between 2000 and 2001? Without outside evidence, it's far more logical to chalk it up to natural fluctuation and inconsistency.
But we're getting off topic. I was speculating last week about gas prices and what it would do to the economy. But I'm not too worried.
Take the movies, for example. It is true that two weekends ago, the top movie only grossed $15 million, the first under-$20 mil this year. And it's true that last weekend's top movie only grossed $16 million. Two in a row!
But you could also argue that none of the recent movies have had anything really exciting to offer and attract large movie crowds, certainly a viable theory. And last weekend had five opening movies in the top seven, which means there were a bunch of new movies competing for money, all of them making just enough to not allow one of them to make a whole bunch.
It's true that the last two weekends have made less money than the same weekends of 2003 and 2004. But it's also true that the last weekend made more money than the previous six weekends.
It's all about which numbers you look at, and the general result is: While money-making among movies does seem to be slightly down, it cannot single-handedly be attributed to gas prices, and even if it could, the numbers aren't different enough to cause alarm.
Or take fast food. I've seen several difference statistics that between 10-30% of people have altered their fast food habits, or semi-formal dining habits, or are clipping more coupons, etc, because of higher gas prices. In one sense, that's a decent percent. But in another sense, it's also very low. The majority of people aren't changing how they spend their money because of higher gas prices! At McDonald's, where I work, we're still plenty busy. Sure, the last two days were pretty slow, but that's just normal fluctuation. At a McTeacher night last week, the gas station across the street said $2.99, and we were packed nonstop for three hours.
The bottom line: Don't panic. The economy's not crumbling yet. (But don't hold your breath for holiday sales) I'll keep analyzing those numbers that none of you probably even care about...
Edmond the Hun
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4 comments:
don't worry. I wasn't going to panic. I'm not stupid like that.
-The Swedish Eskimo
ha, i'm more likely to freak out over my best friend giving me 2 betrayals in one week...maybe hillary is the BEST best friend after all.
Eskimo, may your goats wither and your technology crumble into poisonous dust. i'm sending you death rays RIGHT NOW.
-Sanguine
p.s.
keep number crunching Edmond. woot woot! you could calculate the how close the demise of our friend the Eskimo is if you want ~ that's an interesting stat...
whoa! settle down, girl! please turn off the death rays. first of all, what was the second betrayal? I only recall one- the whole computer bug thing. I was only kidding. you're turning violent, but for no reason. I hate being attacked. sorry for the apparently "uncalled for" joke. NOW I know that I have to be careful around you, or else your eyes turn red and you start cursing our best-friendship. demise?!! cool down! please. I'm afraid. please direct your rage at someone more deserving.
-The Swedish Eskimo
Forget the movies. There are too many variables there. Even if you were to a lot of research to compare many of those variables, you still can't bet past the fact that movie attendance depends upon people's tastes as well as timing, promotion, availability and the like. No matter how great the economy is doing, no one is going to want to go see another Ben A. movie.
You were right, however, to think about how the gas prices are going to affect different classes of people. It will obviously hit the poorest the hardest. When all you've got is $10 for the week's groceries, you don't want to hear people say that you just have to tighten your belt.
But while the wealthiest Americans can still buy all the personal goods they want, that doesn't mean that the gas prices won't affect them. Trickle down economics is counting on the wealth of the rich to be invested in business to create more wealth. So the richer they are, the more they will invest in business that will generate not only more money for them, but more money for more employees.
With that in mind, ask yourself what happens when the Sporting Goods store finds people spending a lot less money there because they've put it in the gas tank? The store has lower profits, the wealthy who own large shares of the company stock get less money, and they invest less. So they fund the start-up of fewer new businesses. And those that already exist, like the Sporting Goods store, begin cutting back on employee hours or laying off a few employees. These employees then have less money to spend in the stores next door. So the trickle down principle trickles in both directions, and then even from side to side.
-The Fresh Eavesdropper
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