Ohio: Bush up by 45K (increasing slightly) at 15%
New Hampshire: Kerry up by 4K (low movement) at 28% --- will be too close to call at 30%
Pennsylvania: Kerry up by 200K (increasing steadily) at 18%
Michigan: Bush up 7K with 3%
Minnesota: Bush up 3K with 1%
Wisconsin: Bush up 15K with 3%
New Mexico: Kerry up 2K with 1%
Colorado: Kerry up 9K with less than 1%
What that means: If Bush gets Ohio, he only needs 10 more. If he gets ANY ONE of these: Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin (and he is currently up in ALL of them) he will be guaranteed a win. In that event, NM and CO wouldn't even matter, nor Iowa, Nevada, or Hawaii, where polls have not yet closed.
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