Politics 2 - Absentee Action

Absentee ballots are going to be more popular this election. The original purpose of absentess was for people who couldn't vote on election day---disability, being out of state, etc. But for this election rules have changed in many states to turn it into more of a convenience thing. Maybe you'll be too busy November 2, and it's such a hassle to wait in those lines, and, man, wouldn't it just be so much easier to vote whenever you want during the next month? This "Vote Early" stuff will undoubtedly affect the candidates' campaign strategies.

They will have to work harder and quicker, because they never know when people are going to cast their vote. This gives much clout to emotional voters, who might vote right after a debate speech if a certain candidate looked really good in it. The problem is, once their vote is cast, I don't see any measures for a recanting. What if they change their mind before November 2? Then it's too late.

Last year 14% of the votes were from absentee ballots. This number is expected to be much higher this election---one estimate has 19%. If many voters vote early, who does this hurt more, Bush or Kerry? Well, it depends on what happens in the next month. If we catch bin Laden, Bush's ratings will undoubtedly go through the roof. Sure, some left radicals will accuse him of waiting to announce it until election time or some junk like that, but regardless, Bush would easily soar---he caught the mastermind of 9/11!. But what if significant amounts of votes had been already cast? It might not matter if more people voted for Bush, if enough early voters had already cast their vote for Kerry. On the other hand, if something really dirty and convicting was dug up about, say, Bush's record, giving Kerry a big advantage, it might be too late if enough votes had already been made for Bush.

Really though, I think my above scenarios are rather exaggerated. The capturing of bin Laden is certainly a possibility, but I doubt anything newsbreaking or poll-shattering will happen that will majorly unbalance things either way. And I wouldn't expect a huge increase in absentee ballots either. First off, not all states are making things as convenient as I've made it sound---26 still require valid absences. Second, many people will consider it just as much of an inconvenience to go out, get an absentee ballot, go back and return it, or whatever all they do...it wouldn't be much more convenient than standing around at a poll booth. It may affect the campaign strategies, but not the election.
(Sources: St. Louis Post-Dispatch - 9/27/04; http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=CAMPAIGN-ABSENTEE-09-27-04&cat=PP)

\Edmond the Hun