Economy, continued

An anonymous "Fresh Eavesdropper" left an insightful and knowledgable comment on my previous economic-related post. The trickle-down related information was especially insightful. (Although it doesn't help me decide how likely the economy will crash this Christmas if people can't and don't spend enough on stuff).

While I recognize that movies are a far from ideal measure of the status of the economy and the people's amount of spending money, it is the only set for which I have readily available data (via www.boxofficemojo.com). Book publishers release rankings only, not numbers. And I simply don't know where to find other useful numbers.

Yet we have now had three weekends in a row without a $20-million grossing movie. Can this be attributed solely to a lack of good movies?

Edmond the Hun

Movies: Elizabethtown

Saw it today. Expect a full review later this week. Probably a 3 of 5.

Pros: Good overall production and presentation, especially regarding the romance element. Modern and smart (cell phones are a major part of the relationship, for example), yet unmodernly unphyscial (yes, they make out eventually, but for a large part simply get to know each other). Plenty of humourous hilarious moments and catch phrases/dialogue.

Cons: The other major element, regarding the death of Orlando's father, subsequent relations with southern country-type family, the memorial service, etc, clashes awkwardly with the romance element, which is much more entertaining. Kirsten's southern accent is wonderfully amusing, except she's not consistent with it. And the brief language and sexual references are random, standing out awkwardly and unnecessarily because the rest of the movie is so devoid of them.

Edmond the Hun

The Economy: Don't Panic (yet)

I love numbers, perhaps too much for my own good. I concluded that an analysis of the numbers alone does not justify accusing Reggie Sanders of taking steroids, even though from 2000 to 2001 he went from 11 home runs to 33 home runs, and even though he hit as many home runs in 2005 as 2004 in only half as many at-bats. If he started steroids in 2001 why didn't he hit as well in 2004 as 2005? Or, if he started steroids in 2005, why the jump between 2000 and 2001? Without outside evidence, it's far more logical to chalk it up to natural fluctuation and inconsistency.

But we're getting off topic. I was speculating last week about gas prices and what it would do to the economy. But I'm not too worried.

Take the movies, for example. It is true that two weekends ago, the top movie only grossed $15 million, the first under-$20 mil this year. And it's true that last weekend's top movie only grossed $16 million. Two in a row!

But you could also argue that none of the recent movies have had anything really exciting to offer and attract large movie crowds, certainly a viable theory. And last weekend had five opening movies in the top seven, which means there were a bunch of new movies competing for money, all of them making just enough to not allow one of them to make a whole bunch.

It's true that the last two weekends have made less money than the same weekends of 2003 and 2004. But it's also true that the last weekend made more money than the previous six weekends.

It's all about which numbers you look at, and the general result is: While money-making among movies does seem to be slightly down, it cannot single-handedly be attributed to gas prices, and even if it could, the numbers aren't different enough to cause alarm.

Or take fast food. I've seen several difference statistics that between 10-30% of people have altered their fast food habits, or semi-formal dining habits, or are clipping more coupons, etc, because of higher gas prices. In one sense, that's a decent percent. But in another sense, it's also very low. The majority of people aren't changing how they spend their money because of higher gas prices! At McDonald's, where I work, we're still plenty busy. Sure, the last two days were pretty slow, but that's just normal fluctuation. At a McTeacher night last week, the gas station across the street said $2.99, and we were packed nonstop for three hours.

The bottom line: Don't panic. The economy's not crumbling yet. (But don't hold your breath for holiday sales) I'll keep analyzing those numbers that none of you probably even care about...

Edmond the Hun

Ramblings: Bagels, Barnes, and Baseball

Got up at 7:30, since I had to work at nine. Read the paper. Surprised to see nothing about Bush's remarks that we've foiled twelve terrorist plots since 9/11, including five for our soil. But why would the media report something that's both positive AND pro-Bush?

Worked six hours, with a break. 'Twas very busy. Only second time doing a breakfast shift, since I'm not really "available" during those hours, and only work then when I'm needed. Managers were again impressed with my quick grasping of the concepts of toasting bagels and heating biscuits and hotcakes and whatnot. I guess they don't expect employees to do what they're told and remember it when they learn something new. But it means they like me more, and it's always good to have your managers like you. It's even better to have them like you because you're a good and hard worker. I think I'm due for a raise in the near future...

Called my girlfriend to see about checking out the new Barnes and Nobles with her tomorrow, or finish watching The Prince of Egypt, which has an amazing musical score. Speaking of which, I need to write more music for the school's play tomorrow, too. I've got a bunch of various ditties floating around that need to be strapped down and molded, but I'm still clueless about the big fight scene.

Played some football with some friends from my former youth group and their friends. Wide receiver, missed some embarrassingly easy grabs since I lack skills, but still caught an interception for a touchdown that finished the first game, and received two more in the second game. Haven't exercised much lately besides sporadic weightlifting, and I was mildly worn out.

Cardinals play tonight after 10. Commissioner Bud Selig apologized to fans for the late start, saying it was unavoidable due to other baseball and football games scheduled on the same day. Makes him look good that he even bothered to apologize, though, right? Until you read in the paper that Kit Bond noted that when a 10 o'clock playoff game occurred a few years ago, he promised "no more 10 o'clock games." And now he broke his promise. Sure, it was unavoidable, but now he gets scolded because of his previous comments.

A tip to my friend who wants to become president (and any other hopefuls out there): When you make promises, only promise to try. Never say that you will make something happen, or that you will not let something happen again. Because the Murphy demons will make sure the opposite comes true, and the media will never forget it. Poor Bud.

Edmond the Hun

Halo Update (A Major, Major Update)

Director: Peter Jackson
Design: WETA

This news is so big that it's making Halo fanatics crazy about how awesome the movie's going to be. I'm excited but still waiting to see how King Kong looks, to see if Jackson can carry his amazing talent with Lord of the Rings through another movie (since all his pre-LOTR movies were sick cheap horror flicks). But if he succeeds with King Kong, Halo will be incredible.

Edmond the Hun

Gas Prices: The Economy In the Long Run

It appears as if gas prices will stay in this $3 range throughout the next month or two, at least, until we can get these Gulf refineries up and running again. Of course, that's providing another hurricane doesn't hit it...

I'm wondering how all of this will affect the American economy. I saw something in today's paper that said there is an expected 5% increase in retail sales this holiday season compared to last year. And I thought, did they take into account this 75% increase in gas prices? If this really maintains, I think it would seriously cut down on the average American's spending money for Christmas presents.

I freely admit that I'm ignorant about demographics and economical factors, and I think it wouldn't affect the upper class, because $5 a gallon would mean nothing to them, except that they might have to wait til next week to buy the newest iPod. And it wouldn't affect the lower class, because they can't afford to own a car anyway. But it would affect the majority of Americans, the middle class, who own a house and a car or two (or three) and pay lots of bills every month but can still afford to pay them and have money left over to buy stuff with.

It's that disposable cash ~ what most commercial businesses rely on for their profits ~ that gas prices will eat into.

The top grossing movie last weekend only made $15 million, less than half of a normal weekend. Is this an early sign of people having less disposable cash? Or is that just because the last two weekends haven't offered anything too exciting and attractive?

I read somewhere that most companies get a quarter of their annual revenue from Christmas/holiday sales. Will they get that quarter this time? Will companies go out of business? Cut workers? Increase unemployment? Start a second Great Depression?

Or am I just a seventeen year old who doesn't understand the economy?

Edmond the Hun

The First Time I Felt Old...

was when I saw an advertisement for the Toy Story 10th Anniversary DVD.